I hate the be the purveyor of more bad Mets news this holiday season, but the Fernando Martinez Dominican Winter League update didn’t exactly warm me up this cold winter morning. Toby Hyde of Mets Minor League Blog reported that Martinez finished hitting .191/.264/.213 in 47 AB for Leones del Escogido. Although, as Hyde points out, is a small sample size, it’s another disappointing performance for the Mets top prospect. It got me to thinking how important 2010 is for Martinez, who is likely ticketed for AAA, to finally stay healthy and show tangible results instead of “tools”.

Long time listeners and readers of my work are familiar with my skepticism with Martinez. I understand he is still young (21) but, outside of a stretch at Buffalo last May, he has never shown me that he is an elite hitter in the making. In comparison David Wright was putting up an OPS+ of 118 in 2004 at the same age, while Jose Reyes, although injury prone, was in his second big league season. Even during my 2008 two day coverage of the B-Mets didn’t yield anything to write home about. To date, Martinez hasn’t been able to use his tools to produce tangible results. To boot, he has a history of injuries, which we know can derail even the best prospects.

I understand the argument about his age. Most kids are still drinking at the frat house and studying for mid terms at the tender age of 21. The thing is great players find a way to compete at every level even when they are overmatched. A good comparison is Aramis Ramirez. He struggled mightily when brought up to the Pirates at the age of 20. He actually went 0-26 before getting his first hit. Ironically it was against the Mets. Ramirez struggled, but he had outstanding minor league seasons under his belt. Within two years he was an elite offensive third baseman.

Martinez sometimes reminds me of Jay Payton, who turned out to be a backup, not great, major league player. The Mets had the kid pegged as a future batting champion when they drafted him out of Georgia Tech. He turned out to have one good season in New York, and another Colorado induced campaign. For his career he was largely a below league average fourth outfielder. As a matter of fact, Payton’s first full season with the Mets he hit 17 homers, drove in 62 runs, and had an OPS of .778. If you use the Minor League Equivalency Calculator, and then put his numbers across a full season, Martinez is projected to hit 18 homers, drive in 63 runs, and have an OPS of .730- Eerily similar to Payton’s 2000 season.

This year very well could be a turning point for Fernando Martinez. Will he produce to the level that one would expect from a top prospect? Or will he continue to leave everyone wanting and further diminish his trade value. Fourth outfielders are a “dime a dozen” and the Mets don’t need another. I still remember Adam Rubin quoting one scout in early 2008 who believed Martinez was more of a backup than star. That has always stuck in my mind. What the Mets need is a star to join the young core of Reyes and Wright. Lastings Milledge failed at it- will Martinez now as well?

Perhaps all hope is not lost as Ike Davis continues to produce numbers that indicate he will be a productive player at the big league level. Maybe he is the real stud of the system. In any event it’s time for Fernando Martinez to finally show us that he is worthy of the organizations top prospect billing.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

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Tags: Aramis Ramirez, Dominican Winter League, Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, Jay Payton, New York Mets