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Update on Chris Carter, Duncan for 1st



By Mike Silva ~ November 25th, 2009. Filed under: Mets Minors, Yanks Minors.

Since the Yankees claimed Chris Carter off waivers from Boston this September Mets fans were unable to get a glimpse of the “booty” from the Billy Wagner trade. Carter seems like a good player that is stuck in the wrong organization. Instead of talking about Jack Cust, Aubrey Huff, Russell Branyan, and Jose Guillen perhaps they have an equivalent already in their system.

Last year he had an .823 OPS at AAA Pawtucket with 16 homers and 61 RBI. So far in the Venezuela Winter League Carter is putting up an OPS of .814 OPS with 3 homers and 10 RBI. These types of numbers don’t make Carter a future star, but are just as good as Jeff Francoeur and only behind David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Gary Sheffield on full time 2009 Mets production.

Earlier in the week Mike Axisa of RAB used a pretty cool tool called the Minor League Equivalency Calculator to project Juan Miranda. It uses the Sean Smith’s equivalency factors and Dan Symborski’s MILB park factors. Don’t ask me to explain the math, but I am sure these numbers are pretty well thought out. Simply put in the league, stats, and what is the major league team equivalent. The calculator will then spit out predicted numbers for any MILB prospect.

When putting Carter’s 2009 Paw Sox line in MLE calculator this was his predicted MLB equivalent performance: In 437 AB’s Carter would hit 12 homers, drive in 47 runs, and put up an OPS of .716. Essentially Daniel Murphy numbers at first base without the glove.

Even if that is Carter’s ceiling he can have value on the 2010 Mets. First, this is at least a solid replacement in the event that Murphy, Francoeur, or whoever the LF is goes down for a period of time. Next, when is the last time the Mets had a legitimate power hitting coming off the bench? Look at this year’s World Series contestants. The Yanks had Eric Hinske and the Phillies Matt Stairs. Both of those players can tie up a ball game with one swing of the bat. Even in their division winning season of 2006 the Mets bench featured Michael Tucker as their primary left handed pinch hitter. Not good. Carter can give you the type of power to be the primary hitter off the bench for a very inexpensive price.

What about Shelley Duncan Complementing Murph?

That was a question posed by NYBD reader MikeDeez on twitter. Want to go cheap? How about Shelley Duncan? MLE Calculator predicts an OPS of .759 with 24 homers and 77 RBI’s if Duncan was given a season of 500 plate appearances (Scranton to NY was used as the comparison). The key with Duncan is the production against left handed pitching. This year he had an OPS around .950 against lefties in the International League. Even if that’s adjusted it’s a shade under .800 on the big league level. Murph/Duncan platoon could hypothetically give you 20 homers, 85 RBI, and an OPS around .750. Can Huff, Cust, and Branyan can do much better? If you are going to go low cost at first until Ike Davis arrives perhaps the answer is right under Omar’s nose.

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Mike Silva has hosted sports shows on 107.1 FM Champions ESPN Radio Long Island ,1240 AM WGBB , Blog Talk Radio and live from Mickey Mantle’s Restaurant. He’s also built and maintained two popular social media hubs: New York Baseball Digest and Sports Media Watchdog. Mike has broken national and local stories, as well as been mentioned on the YES Network, SNY.tv, WFAN, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NY Daily News, New York Magazine, Journal News and the NY Post. Contact Mike professionally at mikesilvamedia.com

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2 Responses to Update on Chris Carter, Duncan for 1st

  1. dale

    if the mets go into the season with a terrible hitter like murphy playing 1b they have already conceded

  2. worcsoxfan

    good luck chris!

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