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Abreu Vs. Hall of Famers



By Howard Megdal ~ October 16th, 2009. Filed under: Hall of Fame, Howard Megdal.

Both Mike Silva and Rob Neyer raise interesting points about Bobby Abreu’s Hall of Fame candidacy. As Mike points out, Abreu consistently topped a 120 OPS+, and his career OPS+ is 132. Meanwhile, Neyer correctly asserts that Abreu never finished higher than 14th in MVP voting. Such a lack of regard usually means one thing: 3,000 hits or bust for a Hall of Fame candidacy.

That seems so unfair to Abreu’s candidacy, however, given that in addition to the hits he’s amassed, he was usually good for 100+ walks a year. Even in his decline phase, he’s walked 84, 73 and 94 times in the 2007-2009 seasons.

So while Abreu has 2,111 hits through 2009, he’d need roughly five of his average seasons to get near 3,000-in other words, to play at his current level through age 40-41.

But add his hits and walks together, and he compares rather favorably to many Hall of Famers already.

Abreu has 2,111 hits, but 1,254 walks, for a total of 3,365 through 2009. That already tops Hall of Famer George Sisler, who had 2,812 hits but just 472 walks, for a total of 3,284.

In fact, here’s where Abreu stands compared to several Hall of Famers.

Lou Brock 3023 + 761 = 3784
Sam Crawford 2961 + 760 = 3721
Roberto Clemente 3000 + 621 = 3621
Al Simmons 2927 + 615 = 3542
Zach Wheat 2884 + 650 = 3534
Bobby Abreu 2111 + 1254 = 3365
George Sisler 2812 + 472 = 3284

Abreu has averaged 83.7 walks and 172 hits over the past three seasons, or a total of 255.7 hits and walks per year. So with a similar season in 2010, he would move ahead of Wheat, Simmons and to within a single hit or walk of Clemente. Another season like this and he easily clears Clemente, Crawford and Brock.

To simplify this, Abreu is 49th all time in on-base percentage, ahead of a slew of Hall of Famers, including Rickey Henderson, Joe DiMaggio, Ralph Kiner, Johnny Mize, Rod Carew- big-time offensive names.

And lest we think this is merely Abreu’s era talking, his adjusted OPS+ is 132. That’s the same 132 as Al Simmons and Tony Gwynn. That’s ahead of Roberto Clemente (130), Dave Winfield (130), Eddie Murray (129), Zach Wheat (129),  Rickey Henderson (127) and many other Hall of Famers.

We’ve moved beyond batting average in the year-to-year evaluation of players. Hopefully, this generation of Hall voters will see beyond just Bobby Abreu’s hit totals as well.

Howard Megdal is the Editor-in-Chief of The Perpetual Post. He covers baseball, basketball and soccer for Capital New York, MLBTradeRumors.com, New York Baseball Digest and has written for ESPN.com as well as numerous other publications. He is the Poet Laureate for SBNation New York. His book about Jewish baseball players, “The Baseball Talmud,” is available for purchase on Amazon.com and wherever books are sold. His next book, "Taking The Field", is available for pre-order on Amazon.com and will publish in May 2011.
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1 Response to Abreu Vs. Hall of Famers

  1. Richard Beck

    One of the saddest predicaments of Abreu’s career has been the wrap against him for being afraid of the wall. That’s like crticizing NASCAR drivers for not having more accidents. Could it be that his prudence has contributed to his durability and hence allowed him to make greater contributions to his teams?

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