Earlier this month Baseball Think Factory used ZiPS Career Projection to assess what would have happened to the careers of Darryl Strawberry and Thurman Munson. I figured on a rainy Saturday this might make for good discussion for two reasons: first, to see what their careers would look like without the off the field roadblocks and second, if that translate into a Hall of Fame career.

First, if you are like me, you might be wondering what are ZiPS projections. Basically it’s a statistical formula that is used to project players seasons and career. I won’t make this about the formula since I probably couldn’t give you honest feedback about its accuracy. I have seen some people on the ‘net claim that PECOTA is better, or that pitching is too difficult to project. Since I am way to novice at this stuff I can’t comment on either (those more familiar are welcome to chime in).

First, here is the final line BBTF came up with for Strawberry:

HR – 556

RBI- 1,676

BA  -.263

OPS – .855

OPS plus-  134

SB – 280

Of course you can go to BBTF and see the yearly numbers as well

If that was Strawberry’s career is he a Hall of Fame player? My answer is yes. Ironically, he would probably go in as a Dodger since ZiPS assumed he would spend the rest of his career in LA. He also compares well to some of his contemporary Hall of Fame colleagues like Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett, and Rickey Henderson. One of my criteria for measuring the HOF is consistently being at your league’s elite. OPS + is a great way to assess that and you can argue that Strawberry has about a decade of performance at a very high level.

When you move over to Munson one thing you must note is that ZiPS assumed he would be a 1B/DH after 1980:

HR – 153

RBI- 1,031

BA  -.288

OPS – .738

OPS plus-  109

SB – 64

As with Strawberry you could go to BBTF for the yearly records. Munson’s candidacy is a trickier proposition. First, you have to take into account the fact he was a catcher. ZiPS used the assumption Munson moves away from the dish and plays 1b/DH for the final eight years of his career which, by the way, none stand out as elite performances. To be fair, he is in the ballpark with other catchers of his era, like Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk, but those individuals caught their entire careers and ZiPS is not making the same assumption. Also, using the Silva consistency test, I find stretches of Munson playing at an elite level, but nothing that seems to compare to Gary Carter, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, or future Hall of Famer Mike Piazza. You have to assume his post 1980 projections would have been worse if Munson had to deal with additional wear and tear of catching.

Marty Appel, author of the book “Munson”, appeared on my show and said that, in his opinion, Thurman Munson was not a Hall of Famer. I didn’t see Thurman play, so I can only go by the numbers and compare him to others of his era. Those that saw him play say no and my humble analysis indicates the same. Unfortunately a no go for Thurman Munson.

One vote YES for Strawberry, one vote NO for Munson. Great work by BBTF to give us something to chat about on this dank Saturday afternoon. What are your thoughts?

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

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Tags: Baseball Think Factory, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Winfield, Gary Carter, Johnny Bench, Kirby Puckett, Los Angeles Dodgers, Marty Appel, Mike Piazza, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Rickey Henderson, Thurman Munson, ZIPS